Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Thursday session steady to a penny lower. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated old crop sales short of analysts’ expectations at 695,568 MT. Net reductions of 489,700 MT were reported for Unknown (likely switched to a destination). New crop sales were shown at 90,000 MT. The USDA left old crop ending stocks alone in this morning’s S&D report, while new crop US stocks were shown at 1.682 bbu in the first official estimate of the year. US Production for 18/19 was projected at 14.04 bbu. Production estimates for Argentine corn were left at 33 MMT with Brazil cut 5 to 87 MMT. CONAB numbers showed an increase to 17/18 production on larger first crop totals to 89.21 MMT. USDA has now flipped to be lower than CONAB. World crop ending stocks of old crop corn were reported down 2.88 MMT to 194.9, with new crop shown as dropping to 159.15 MMT, the tightest since 12/13 if realized.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.94 3/4, unch,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $4.02, down 3/4 cent,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.10 1/4, down 3/4 cent

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.19 1/2, unch

Soybean futures pulled back from session highs but closed with most contracts 5 to 7 cents higher. Soy meal was up $1.30/ton, with front month soy oil 11 points in the red. Old crop soybean export sales were within trade estimates at 354,257 MT during the week of 5/3. Sales of New crop were reported at 278,320 MT. Soy meal sales were just 90,871 MT, with oil at 45,392 MT. This morning’s Supply and Demand report from the USDA saw a 20 mbu reduction to old crop stocks at 530 mbu. Initial projections show a 415 mbu carryout for 18/19 on larger exports and smaller production of 4.28 bbu. A boost in Brazilian production to117 MMT more than offset a 1 MMT reduction to Argentina (now at 39 MMT). That helped old crop world stocks to jump 1.4 MMT to 92.2 MMT. New crop stocks for the world are projected at 96.7 MMT and would be 5.5 MMT lower yr/yr. Data from China’s Ag Ministry shows that they expect total imports of soybeans to be slightly reduced in 18/19 to 95.65 MMT. USDA has them at 97 MMT for old crop and 103 MMT for 2018/19.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.13 1/4, up 6 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.21 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.24 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.31, up 6 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $390.50, up $1.30,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.98, up $0.11

Wheat futures saw losses in most contracts on Thursday. MPLS was the strongest, steady to 2 cents lower. KC and CBT were down 4 to 6 cents. Weekly sales of old crop US wheat were shown at a disappointing 35,190 MT this morning, with new crop at just 48,208 MT. The WASDE indicated that old crop stocks of US wheat at 1.070 bbu, up 6 mbu, with initial 18/19 projections at 955 mbu, above expectations. US wheat production is seen at 1.821 bbu in 18/19, with winter at 1.192 bbu. HRW was 7 lower than expected at 647 mbu with SRW at 315. World ending stocks of 17/18 wheat are now at 270.45 MMT, a little lower than expectations. New crop stocks projections are seen at 264.33 MMT. Japan purchased 95,740 MT of wheat from Australia and the US in their weekly tender on Thursday, with 61,380 MT from the US.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.15 1/4, unch,

Live cattle futures settled with most contracts 50 cents to $1.85 higher. Feeder cattle futures were up 82.5 cents to $1.45. The CME feeder cattle index was down 7 cents on May 9 at $137.93. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 11 cents at $231.07, with Select boxes 19 cents higher at $209.14. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 475,000 head through Thursday, up 3,000 head from last week and 9,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash bids on Thursday were reported at $120-121 in the South and as high as $122 in the North. Export sales of beef in the week of 5/3 were indicated at 11,287 MT, up 4.7% from last year but 30.4% lower than last week. Quarterly beef production saw a 420 million pound reduction for 2018 at 27.215 billion pounds, with the second quarter down 305 million pounds from April in the WASDE report.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $107.525, up $1.850,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $104.300, up $0.925,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $107.250, up $0.500,

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.600, up $1.450

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.950, up $1.250

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.125, up $0.950

Lean hog futures were mixed on Thursday, with most contracts higher and nearby May down 45 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 22 cents from the previous day to $63.55 on May 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 54 cents at $72.58 on Thursday afternoon. The national base hog weighted average price was 40 cents higher at $61.13. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1.835 million head through Thursday. That is 18,000 fewer than last week but well above this week last year. Pork export sale totaled 16,528 MT in the week that ended 5/3, down 6% from a year ago. Pork production was projected at 26.77 billion pounds in the USDA supply and demand report this morning, down 32 mil pounds from last month.

May 18 Hogs closed at $65.475, down $0.450,

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $77.325, up $0.750

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $78.075, up $0.475

Cotton futures finished the Thursday session with losses of 30 to 130 points in most contracts. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed old crop sales of upland cotton at 193,065 RB. New crop sales were down from the week prior but still above last year at 228,627 RB. The May supply and demand report from the USDA showed a slight reduction to 17/18 production based on classing data and added 500,000 bales to the export total. That trimmed ending stocks to 4.7 million bales. New crop stocks are seen at 5.2 million bales in their first estimate. That would put 18/19 stocks/use at 27.5%. World ending stocks were slightly lower for old crop at 88.21 million bales, with new crop projected at 83.75 million bales. The Cotlook A index was down 70 points to 93.95 cents/lb on May 9. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 75.58 cents/lb, up 59 points from the week prior.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.560, down 130 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 81.620, down 66 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 80.110, down 45 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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