Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 3 to 4 cents lower on Friday, with pressure coming from wheat. Export commitments of corn slipped slightly from last week but are still down just 0.76% from a year ago. They are 85% of the full year WASDE forecast and running above the average pace of 84% for this date. China sold another 2.627 MMT of corn (from 2014) from state reserves on Friday, totaling 85.01% of the offered amount. There was also 301,850 MT of 2013 corn sold. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimates that the country’s corn harvest is 31% complete, compared to the average of 25% for this date.

May 18 Corn is at $3.85 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.93 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $4.00 1/4, down 4 cents

Dec 18 Corn is at $4.09 1/2, down 4 cents

Soybean futures are showing 5 to 6 3/4 cent losses at midday on pre-weekend profit taking. Soy meal is down $1.20/ton, with front month soy oil down 4 points. Total commitments of soybean exports are now 3.8% lower than this time last year. The larger sale totals in recent weeks have allowed commitments to get a lot closer to the USDA projection. They are now 94% of that full year number vs. the average of 96% for this date and last year’s 95%. Chinese imports of soybeans totaled 5.66 MMT in March according to customs data, up 4.5% from February but down 10% from last year. First quarter imports were only about 2/10th of a percent above year ago. Argentina’s soybean harvest is estimated at 28% complete, ahead of the average according to the country’s Ag ministry.

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.54, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.65, down 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.64 1/2, down 6 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $10.55 1/2, down 5 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal is at $382.20, down $1.20

May 18 Soybean Oil is at $31.59, down $0.04

Wheat futures are displaying 9 to 10 1/2 cents losses in the HRS and SRW contracts at midday, with HRW down 14 to 15 3/4 cents. Parts of HRW country are expected to catch some moisture this weekend from a storm that is bringing blizzard warnings to the Northern Plains. Commitments of all wheat exports are now 15.4% lower than this time in 2017, as sales continue to disappoint. That would place them at 92% of the USDA projection, compared to the average of 101% and last year’s 103%. Taiwan is seeking 92,975 MT of wheat from the US, with the tender to close on April 18. Russia’s IKAR consulting firm increased their export estimate for Russia to 39.5 MMT.

May 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.70 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.91 3/4, down 15 3/4 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.12 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby April up 42.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed, with April down a quarter. The CME feeder cattle index was up 91 cents on April 11 at $135.76. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday morning. Choice boxes were 36 cents higher at $212.84, with Select boxes down 49 cents at $200.18. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 475,000 head through Thursday. That is 18,000 above the previous week and up 17,000 head from the same week in 2017. A few cash sales of $117-118 have been reported so far this week. Total 2018 beef export commitments are now 17.9% above this time last year.

Apr 18 Cattle are at $116.175, up $0.425,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $103.575, down $0.125,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $103.950, down $0.325,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $138.625, down $0.250

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $140.000, up $0.025

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $144.575, down $0.375

Lean hog futures are mostly 10 to 50 cents in the red at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 5 cents from the previous day on April 11 to $52.97. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 79 cents at $66.85 this morning, with the picnic the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was 20 cents lower at $49.27. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.832 million head through Thursday. That is up 54,000 head from the same point last year. Export commitments of pork are now 5.9% larger than last year at this time.

Apr 18 Hogs are at $53.800, down $0.500,

May 18 Hogs are at $69.150, down $0.175

Jun 18 Hogs are at $77.150, down $0.100

Cotton futures are 10 to 56 points higher on Friday. Total export commitments are still 16.8% above last year, but lost a little of their lead due to the slow sales week. Even with the USDA raising their projection for full year exports, commitments are still 108% of that number, compared to the average of 93%. Mills reduced their May on call sales position by 7,212 contracts in the week that ended 4/6, bringing the total for May down to 15,947 contracts. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 74.32 cents/lb, up 2.32 cents from the previous week. The Cotlook A index was up 25 points from the previous day at 93.05 cents/lb.

May 18 Cotton is at 83.97, up 28 points,

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.56, up 56 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 78.930, up 10 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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