Blue Line Morning Express
Morning Express

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Crude Oil (January)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 53.25, up 0.30

Fundamentals:Todays EIA inventory report has been rescheduled for tomorrow at 9:30 am CT. Still, API released their private survey after the close yesterday and it sent Crude Oil lower as it showed the potential for an eleventh straight build in inventories; +5.36 mb Crude, +3.61 mb Gasoline, +4.32 mb Distillates, +1.44 mb at Cushing. This was undoubtedly a very bearish report, especially relative to expectations that were calling for a draw of more than 2 mb of Crude. Those expectations for tomorrows report have been revised to -0.942 mb Crude, +1.18 mb Gasoline and +1.3 mb Distillates. Ultimately, Crude has held extremely well given this API report coupled with the bloodbath in equity markets yesterday from a contracted risk appetite. This is because the major focus this week remains the OPEC meeting in Vienna that begins tomorrow. Yesterday, we said a factor in Crude Oils rise overnight and into Tuesday morning was the fact that the EIA report was delayed which might diminish its effect as it is drowned out by OPEC; there were reports of a 1 mb SPR release last week. Uncertainty surrounding this OPEC meeting is the only certainty, this can be seen through what feels like a dialed back dose of jawboning when compared to other pivotal meetings in the past. Our narrative this week remains the same, Bill Baruch joined Bloomberg on Monday to discuss the impact of the trade truce with China coupled with this weeks OPEC meeting.

Technicals:Crude Oil tested major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.



Gold (February)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1246.6, up 7.0

Fundamentals:Gold is holding at the highest level in a month. Government data for today including the private ADP Survey and ISM Non-Manufacturing have been rescheduled for tomorrow. The Dollar has stabilized slightly from the low early in Tuesdays session. Yesterdays risk-off move which was most notable in equity markets did not help Gold. Treasury prices surged higher on the tailwind provided by the 5yr yield dipping below the 3yr yield in an inversion. Although this is a very favorable landscape for Gold as it invigorates recessionary fears, the other catalyst in the risk-off move was the diminished expectations of the 90-day trade truce between the U.S and China. This encouraged the Dollars strength in the second half of yesterdays session. Furthermore, an additional tailwind for the Dollar was provided by comments from NY Fed President Williams who sees continued rate hikes. All in all, as we stated above, Gold is holding very well, however, traders must understand the significance of Fridays Nonfarm Payroll report when positioning.

Technicals:We remain unequivocally Bullish in Bias Gold, especially for the long-term. The chart has been extremely constructive in recent days, but this is also when you must be on the lookout for potential technical (and fundamental with Nonfarm Payroll) headwinds; major three-star resistance is at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.