Grain

Grain prices this morning are mostly higher with Dec corn unch, Nov soybeans +5.50 (+0.64%), and Dec wheat +3.50 (+0.69%). Grain prices on Thursday settled mixed with Dec corn at a 1-1/2 month high: Dec corn +6.50 (+1.79%), Nov soybeans +6.00 (+0.70%), Dec wheat -2.50 (-0.49%). Dec corn rallied to a 1-1/2 month high after the USDA in Thursday's WASDE report unexpectedly cut its U.S. 2018/19 corn production estimate to 14.778 bln bu, less than expectations of an increase to 14.859 bln bu. The USDA also raised its U.S. 2018/19 corn ending stocks estimate to 1.813 bln bu, less than expectations of 1.913 bln bu, as they raised their U.S. 2018/19 corn export forecast to a record 2.475 bln bu. Nov soybeans moved higher after the USDA unexpectedly cut its U.S. 2018/19 soybean production estimate to 4.69 bln bu, less than expectations of an increase to 4.722 bln bu, and as they raised their U.S. 2018/19 soybean ending stocks estimate to a record 885 mln bu, less than expectations of 905 mln bu. Prices fell back from their best levels as the USDA raised its global 2018/19 soybean production estimate to a record 369.48 MMT and as they hiked their global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks estimate to a record 110.04 MMT, higher than expectations of 109.9 MMT. The USDA cut its global 2018/19 wheat production estimate to a 4-year low of 730.92 MMT and they lowered their global 2018/19 wheat ending stocks estimate to 260.2 MMT, less than expectations of 261.2 MMT. A bearish factor for wheat was the action by Russia's Agriculture Ministry to raise its Russia's wheat harvest estimate for this year to 68.8 MMT to 69 MMT from a prior estimate of 64.4 MMT. Increased Russian wheat exports are negative for wheat prices as Russian wheat exports from Jul 1-Sep 13 were 10.2 MMT, up +48% y/y. SovEcon reported that Russia Aug wheat exports rose +15% y/y to a record 4.5 MMT.

Tuesday's USDA Crop Progress report showed that 34% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Oct 7, +8 points ahead of the 5-year average. The Crop Progress report also showed 32% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested as of Oct 7, -4 points behind the 5-year average. Meanwhile, 57% of the U.S winter wheat crop was planted as of Oct 7, +3 points ahead of the 5-year average.