Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures led the way higher on Tuesday, up 3 to 5 3/4 cents, with the emphasis on continued delays in northern corn planting. Consultant Informa estimates that the US will plant 89 million acres of corn in 2018, higher than the March USDA number of 88 million acres. Planting progress across the Corn Belt moved at a decent pace last week as IL, IN, NE and OH are all ahead of their average pace. Progress in IA was 5% below the normal pace at 65%. The main delays are in the Upper Midwest. The crop was at or above average for emergence in most Corn Belt states.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $4.02 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.10 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.19 1/4, up 5 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $4.27 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents

Soybean futures came back from double digit losses earlier in the day to post 1 to 2 cent gains on Tuesday. Weakness was still seen in soy meal, down $5.30/ton, with front month soy oil down 13 points. Soybean acreage is estimated at 89.4 million acres in 2018 by Informa, above the current USDA projection of 89 million acres. Soybean planting progress was at or above normal for most states on Sunday, with exceptions for MN, ND, SD, and WI. This morning’s NOPA report showed soybean crush during April by NOPA members was 161.016 mbu. That was below last month but slightly above estimates and 15.7% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks were shown at 2.092 billion pounds.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.18 3/4, up 1 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.22, up 1 cent,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.22 3/4, up 2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $10.28 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $382.30, down $5.30,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.12, down $0.13

Wheat futures ended the session with KC contracts steady, CBT 1-2 higher and MPLS up 4-4 3/4 cents. Support from corn spilled over to help ease pressure from a sharply higher US dollar index on Tuesday. Informa numbers released on Tuesday put all spring wheat other than Durum at 12.4 million acres, down from the USDA’s 12.6 million acres. Condition ratings in KS were down 1 point last week to 247, with OK up 15 and TX 2 points better. Spring wheat planting is progressing, but Washington is the only of the 6 states to show progress matching the average pace. Japan is seeking 89,937 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. The weekly MOA tender will close Thursday, with 33,992 MT sought from the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased just 60,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat in their latest tender on Tuesday. Keep in mind that this was during local harvest, when they usually don’t buy much.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.93 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.09 3/4, unch,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.06 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures saw losses of $1.50 to $1.65 in the front months on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were $1.58 to $2 lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 20 cents on May 14 at $135.92. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 48 cents at $231.64, with Select boxes 39 cents higher at $209.51. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 236,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 2,000 head from last week but 3,000 head larger than the same week last year. A few early cash trades at $117 were reported across the Plains on Tuesday.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $102.975, down $1.650,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $100.400, down $1.500,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $103.750, down $1.525,

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.550, down $1.850

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.450, down $1.925

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.950, down $1.850

Lean hog futures were 70 cents to $1.425 in the red on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 59 cents from the previous day to $64.65 on May 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 69 cents at $74.24 on Tuesday afternoon. The belly led the way, up $4.26. The national base hog weighted average price was $1.52 higher at $64.37 this afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 920,000 head through Tuesday. That is 7,000 head more than last week and 39,000 above the same week in 2017.

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $74.725, down $1.425,

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $77.700, down $1.025

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $77.450, down $0.925

Cotton futures ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with most nearby contracts 6 to 25 points higher. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed TX at 28% planted, 5% above normal, with GA 10% faster than average at 41% complete. Consultant Informa estimates US 2018 all cotton plantings at 14 million acres, above the current USDA number of 13.47 million acres. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day to 93.1 cents/lb on May 14. The USDA Adjusted World Price for this week is 75.58 cents/lb, up 59 points from the week prior.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.760, up 6 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 81.340, up 14 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 80.110, up 25 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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