Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher on Tuesday, shrugging off decent progress made in planting last week. Informa estimates that the US will plant 89 million acres of corn in 2018, higher than the current USDA number of 88 million acres. Planting progress across the Corn Belt moved at a decent pace last week as IL, IN, NE and OH are all ahead of their average pace. Progress in IA was 5% below the normal pace at 65%. The main delays are in the Upper Midwest. The crop was at or above average for emergence in most Corn Belt states.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.98 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $4.06 3/4, up 2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $4.15 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $4.24 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybean futures are trading 9 to 11 3/4 cents lower at midday. Nearby soy meal was down $8.50/ton, with front month soy oil down 19 points. Soybean acreage is estimated at 89.4 million acres in 2018 by Informa, above the current USDA projection of 89 million acres. Soybean planting progress was at or above normal for most states on Sunday, with exceptions for MN, ND, SD, and WI. This morning’s NOPA report showed soybean crush during April by NOPA members was 161.016 mbu. That was below last month but slightly above estimates and 15.7% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks were shown at 2.092 billion pounds.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.06, down 11 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.09 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $10.10 3/4, down 10 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $10.14, down 9 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $379.10, down $8.50

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $31.06, down $0.19

Wheat futures are steady in most MPLS contracts at midday, with CBT down 2 to 4 cents and KC 5-6 cents in the red. Informa numbers released on Tuesday show all spring wheat other than Durum at 12.4 million acres, down from the USDA’s 12.6 million acres. Condition ratings in KS were down 1 point last week to 247, with OK up 15 and TX 2 points better. Spring wheat planting is progressing, but Washington is the only of the 6 states to show progress matching the average pace. Japan is seeking 89,937 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. The weekly MOA tender will close Thursday, with 33,992 MT sought from the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased just 60,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat in their latest tender on Tuesday. Keep in mind that this was during local harvest, when they usually don’t buy much.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.89, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.04 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.01 1/2, unch ,

Live cattle futures are mostly $1.30 to $1.65 lower on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are down $1.50 to $2.275. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.09 on May 11 at $136.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down 26 cents at $231.86, with Select boxes $1.05 higher at $210.17. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 117,000 head on Monday. That is down 2,000 head from last week but 1,000 head larger than the same week last year. Packers appear to be starting the bidding this week around $116. Asks are much higher.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $102.925, down $1.700,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $99.950, down $1.950,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $103.450, down $1.825,

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $133.900, down $1.500

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $138.100, down $2.275

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $138.750, down $2.050

Lean hog futures are currently $1.25 to $1.45 lower in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 59 cents from the previous day to $64.65 on May 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 29 cents at $73.26 on Tuesday morning. The national base hog weighted average price was 59 cents higher at $63.44 this morning. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 459,000 head on Monday. That is 10,000 head more than last week and 19,000 above the same week in 2017.

Jun 18 Hogs are at $74.700, down $1.450,

Jul 18 Hogs are at $77.475, down $1.250

Aug 18 Hogs are at $77.100, down $1.275

Cotton futures are showing gains of 15 to 22 points on Tuesday. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed TX at 28% planted, 5% above normal, with GA 10% faster than average at 41% complete. Consultant Informa estimates the 2018 all cotton acreage number at 14 million acres, above the current USDA number of 13.47 million acres. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day to 93.1 cents/lb on May 14. The USDA Adjusted World Price for this week is 75.58 cents/lb, up 59 points from the week prior.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.85, up 15 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 80.08, up 22 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 79.860, up 21 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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