Long Hogs on a Monday

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Here are a few of the trading suggestions I offered today:

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From the Livestock Section posted early in the morning:

"Moving forward, I expect front month April hogs to possibly rise as high as $72.00. I will be buying front lean hogs but selling the back month December. There is a tendency for hog futures to rally sharply from early March into late April,. I expect that seasonal to unfold PDQ.

For today, buy (1) more April lean hog on a $68.30 buy stop with a $68.50 limit. Any close over $68.50 for April hogs is bullish. And if this trade is executed, stay tuned as I will come out with some email PDQ.

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The suggestions above were not executed but later in the morning I did suggest the following in a Special Email Alert several hours later:

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As a new trade, buy (1)April lean hog on a buy stop of $67.05. The high today is $67.55 with a last of $66.80. If filled, use no stop for now.


All other trading suggestions for hogs is cancelled. But if April futures rise to $67.05, be on the alert for another email from me PDQ.


The time is 9:55 a.m. Chicago

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And in the afternoon comments in the Livestock Section of my newsletter I stated the following:

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I expect front hogs to rally into late March and possibly early April. If so, the bull spreads should do well. And stay alert for another email.

But just in case, buy (1) more April hog if market touches unchanged. No stop if filled. Right now, April hogs are 85 lower and acting woefully heavy.

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I will come out of today, with multiple long positions in April hogs.


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Earlier today, I had a client ask me about the Canadian dollar, the Loonie and if was worthy of a long position. Then he asked," How much heat would I have to put up with before giving up on the long side?


I said, Well, in my new book, Haunted By Markets ( found at commodityinsite.com) in a Chapter entitled, "Loonie" I will send you what I wrote in August, 1998. Here is what I sent him:

"The Canadian dollar is another currency under tremendous selling pressure with a new 160 year (yes, year) low set in the first week of August, along with new lows for the yen. The Canadian dollar is a mess.


The Canadian dollar has stamped on it the profile of a loon. The loon is the brightly colored bird with a distinctive, "ring" around its neck that makes an eerie sort of sound. Canadians refer to as their dollar as the, "loonie" in the same sort of fond manner that Americans refer to the dollar as the "Greenback". I cannot think of a more appropriate name for a currency that is now at its lowest level in 160 years than to call it the "loonie". Can you imagine? Here we are in 1998, arguably the most prosperous time in the history of mankind and the, "loonie" is at a 160 year low. That is pretty loony in my opinion.


But these are certainly loony times. Just look at what took place across the board in the very first week of August. The following markets fell to multi-year lows in what has to be one of the most sound. Canadians refer to as their dollar as the, "loonie" in the same sort of fond manner that Americans refer to the dollar as the "Greenback". I cannot think of a more appropriate name for a currency that is now at its lowest level in 160 years than to call it the "loonie". Can you imagine?


Here we are in 1998, arguably the most prosperous time in the history of mankind and the, "loonie" is at a 160 year low. That is pretty loony in my opinion.


But these are certainly loony times. Just look at what took place across the board in the very first week of August. The following markets fell to multi-year lows in what has to be one of the most

In no particular order; cattle, hogs, soybean meal, wheat, the yen, the loonie, gold, oats, crude oil, cocoa, unleaded gas, heating oil, the CRB index and the Goldman Sachs commodity index. Those markets all fell to multi-year lows."


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When involved in the futures markets, I suggest you know history. And to know history, I suggest you check out, commodityinsite.com and look at "Haunted By Markets." Once on the website, search around for "sneak preview" and judge for yourself. The book is about 758 pages long and will keep you busy for a while.


The time is 12:55 p.m. Chicago



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