Whats leading todays move
Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (June)

Last weeks close:Settled at 2788.75

Fundamentals:Nonfarm Payroll was a perfect storm for equity markets on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings missed the expected 0.2% mark, coming in at 0.1% but was accompanied by tremendous job growth at 313,000; on Fridays Morning Express we said this exact scenario would be bullish. We discussed all last week how this was the most important read on wages ever and the miss pushes the Federal Reserve back on their inflation argument. This biggest headwind for equity markets was a rise in rates as the Feds argument to hike four times this year was gaining traction in recent weeks. The S&P gained 1.6% on Friday and extended gains into this morning to the highest level since February 2nd. However, the NQ set a new all-time high on Friday with strong leadership. The Nasdaq breakout was the highlight last night on ourTradable Events this Weekwhich is released each Sunday. It is leading the way again this morning, already gaining more than 0.5% on the session. Todays economic calendar is bare, but the focus will quickly shift to tomorrows CPI read, also discussed on yesterdays Tradable Events. If inflation shows signs of stalling this will force the Fed hawks to do a complete 180 from their most recent rhetoric; one that pinned four hikes this year as possible and even gradual. The term is overly clich, but the groundwork is being laid for a goldilocks period in equity markets.

Technicals:The market has been a technical paradise in recent sessions and we expect much more of the same. Major three-star resistance comes in at...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


Crude Oil (April)

Last weeks close:Settled at 62.04

Fundamentals:Crude Oil put in a strong Friday session queuing off the risk-on environment brought by the Nonfarm Payroll report. While the 313,000 in job growth was enough to signal that the economy is expanding, the lack of wage growth will keep the Federal Reserve in check. The Dollar Index lost ground on the session and this sparked a gain of more than 3% for Crude ahead of the weekend. However, the Dollar has held ground into this morning and a fresh report in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend on OPEC divide has traders on edge. The report discusses how two different price views could place OPECs production cap into question; Saudi Arabia vying for $70 while Iran is more comfortable with $60. Ultimately, traders who bought after the jobs report as we discussed on FridaysMidday Market Minuteshould be quick to lock in gains as prices did not hold Fridays closing range or Sundays opening range ahead of a busy week for Crude Oil. The EIA is set to release their Monthly Drilling Productivity Report today, inventories come into the picture tomorrow and Wednesday, OPEC releases its Monthly Oil Report on Wednesday and the IEA releases its on Thursday.

Technicals:Yes, our Bias quickly turned Bullish on Friday and this was due to the Dollar. If the Dollar begins to lose significant ground while equities rally, this would bring a strong atmosphere for Crude which rejected the $60 mark once again last week. We are sticking with...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (April)

Last weeks close:Settled at 1324

Fundamentals:Fridays Nonfarm Payroll report was not a screaming game-on for Gold in the immediate term, though the fact that the Dollar could not hold ground did make and still makes Gold a very attractive trade this week. We discussed the significance of tomorrows CPI data in yesterdaysTradable Event this Week; if this misses then we will get the screaming game-on for Gold. The Dollar failed to hold ground on Friday despite a tremendous 313,000 jobs created in February. This was because wage growth is now the most important part of the report and without it, the Fed will have a very difficult time hiking rates at a pace as fast or faster than three times a year; Average Hourly Earnings came in at 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The economic calendar is quiet today ahead of tomorrow except for a 10-year Treasury auction at noon CT and Federal Budget Balance due at 1:00 pm CT.

Technicals:The lack of follow through from Fridays session is concerning in the immediate term on a technical basis. Still, the tape is...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Natural Gas (April)

Last weeks close:Settled at 2.732

Fundamentals:Natural Gas is off to a strong start this week on technicals and fundamentals. Despite temperatures well within seasonal averages, the Northeast braces for its third winter storm in two weeks. With uncertainty provided by another Noreaster, this one dubbed Skyler, buyers have quickly come to the table this morning.

Technicals:Fridays low of 2.712 held first key support on a closing basis and higher low on todays session has kept a rising trend line from...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

10-year (June)

Last weeks close:Settled at 12001

Fundamentals:Fridays price action stayed in a tight range of 7.5 ticks after what was a conflicting Nonfarm Payroll report. While job growth was tremendous at 313,000, the wage growth was simply not there. This, as we have discussed above, pushes the Federal Reserve back from their recent rhetoric of potentially bringing a fourth hike into the picture. The 10-year is an interesting trade, because the data is not bad, it just lacks inflation. This means the Fed will continue at their current pace, albeit, because rates are too low for current levels of growth. This also means that a 3% yield is likely to be the rough ceiling for the 10-year. Tomorrows CPI data will be absolutely crucial in deciphering this conundrum. There is a 10-year Treasury auction at noon CT today.

Technicals:Price action finished the session right where it was prior to the Nonfarm Payroll release and this continues to signal little edge in the 10-year trade. While the long-term path of least resistance has been lower, we maintain that...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.