Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Monday session with 5 cent gains in the nearby contracts, as weekend rains in Argentina were limited. Monday morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 835,131 MT of corn was shipped during the week of 2/8. That is 23.61% lower than the previous week and lags the same week last year by 33.51%. Following Thursday’s update to the USDA export projection, corn export commitments are now 65.34% of that number. That not lags the average of 68% and last year’s 74%. In a tender that closed on Monday, South Korea purchased 120,000 MT of corn most likely sourced from the US for April-May delivery.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.67, up 5 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.74 3/4, up 5 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, up 5 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, up 5 cents

Soybean futures finished the day with sharp gains of 16 to 19 cents. Moisture in Argentina over the weekend was less than expected and there may also be some stock market cash trying to find a home. The trucker strike in Argentina was lifted over the weekend, allowing shipments to resume. Meal futures were up $14.00/ton, with nearby soy oil down 11 points. The USDA reported a private sale of 314,000 MT of soybeans to Unknown Destinations with 198,000 MT for 17/18 and 116,000 MT for 18/19. That sale was offset by a cancellation of 455,000 MT of 17/18 soybeans to China. There was 1.319 MMT in soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended 2/8. That is 1.16% larger than a year ago and 14.55% larger than last year. Export commitments for soybeans as of last Thursday’s report are now 77.45% of the new USDA projection. That is compared to the average for that week of 90% and 87% last year.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.01 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.12 1/2, up 19 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.22, up 18 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.16 3/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $357.80, up $14.00,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.85, down $0.11

Wheat futures ended the Monday session with 15 cent gains in the nearby CBT contracts, as KC HRW was up 12 to 15 cents. MPLS was the weakest, but still managed to be 6 to 7 cents higher on the day. This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 487,902 MT of wheat shipped for the week that ended 2/8. That was 13.57% above the last week and nearly 50.22% larger than the same time last year. All wheat export commitments are now 81.02% of the newly updated USDA export projection. The average is 87% for that week, with last year hitting 89% at this time. Australia made the lowest offer in Iraq’s recent tender, with the offers to remain valid until Thursday.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.64, up 15 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.77 1/2, up 12 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10, up 6 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures saw gains of 60 cents to $1.375 in most contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were 82.5 cents to $1.825 higher on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 4 cents on February 9 at $147.63. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.72 at $208.24, with Select boxes $1.23 higher at $203.97. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 110,000 head on Monday. That was down 4,000 from the previous week and 1,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Most cash trade was in the $126 range last week.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $127.125, up $0.600,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $125.000, up $1.375,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $116.725, up $1.300,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.675, up $1.475

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.525, up $1.775

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.150, up $1.825

Lean hog futures posted gains of $1 to $1.675 in most contracts, as nearby Feb was down 10 cents ahead of Wednesday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 8 was at $75.38, down 25 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.27 higher at $76.71 in the Monday PM report. All cuts were reported higher, with the belly primal up $8.82. The national base hog weighted average price was down 60 cents at $68.88 this afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 462,000 on Monday. That is up 1,000 head from the previous week and 21,000 head more than the same time last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $73.075, down $0.100,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $70.525, up $1.675

May 18 Hogs closed at $76.050, up $1.275

Cotton futures ended the Monday session with mixed trade, as nearby contracts were 14 to 23 points lower with back months higher. The USDA reported that 354,825 bales of upland cotton was classed during the week of Feb 8. That would bring the total for the 2017/18 crop to 18.243 million bales. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.45 cents/lb Thursday morning, which was down 195 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index on February 9 was 87.40 cents/lb, up 70 points from the previous day. The NCC grower survey released on Saturday anticipates a 3.7% increase in US all cotton acreage in 2018. That survey shows that producers intend to plant 13.078 million acres of cotton in 2018.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 76.450, down 23 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 77.450, down 18 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 78.440, down 14 points

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