Top Farmer Midday Update 01-12-18

CORN: Corn futures are down 2-1/2 cents in a negative response to today’s highly anticipated USDA January Supply/Demand report. Corn production came in at 14.6 bil bu, down 4% from 2016, and just slightly above the pre-report average estimate. Average yield, however, was bumped up to a record high of 176.6 bpa, 2 bushels above the 2016-17 crop. Area harvested for grain was pegged at 82.7 mil acres, down 5% from last year's crop. The monthly WASDE raised corn ending stocks for the 2017-18 crop by 40 mil bu for the crop year to 2.48 bil bu. Total corn supply was increased by 25 mil bu while feed and residual use for the 2017-18 corn crop was lowered by 25 mil bus as well. Total domestic use was pegged at 15 mil bu lower than a month ago. Mar corn held mostly steady after the report, but it didn’t take long to slip to a new contract low at 3.46.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures are up 3 to 4 cents to 9.53 in the Mar contract. USDA lowered soybean production for the 2017-18 crop, lowering soybean production 34 mil bu to 4.39 bil bu, still marking a record crop. The agency increased soybean ending stocks for the 2017-18 crop by 25 mil bu to 470 mil bu. Production was lowered by 33 mil bu and total supply was lowered 34 mil bu. USDA also lowered U.S. soybean exports for the 2017-18 crop by 65 mil bu, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production globally and export forecasts for Brazil. Soybean disappearance from September-November totaled 1.54 bil bu, down 4% from a year ago. Total soybeans stored on December 1 amounted to 3.157 bil bu, up 9% from a year ago. On-farm storage accounted for 1.49 bil bu, which is 11% higher than in December 2016. Off-farm soybean stocks were pegged at 1.67 bil bu, up 7% from a year earlier.

WHEAT:Wheat futures fell out of their 2018 trading ranges following today’s reports. May CBOT and KC wheat are down 10 to 13 cents to 4.36-1/4 and 4.41, respectively. Winter wheat planted acreage totaled 32.6 mil acres, down 1% from last year, again marking the lowest winter wheat acreage in more than a century. HRW wheat acres totaled 23.1 mil acres, down 300,000 acres from a year ago, but still higher than pre-report expectations. SRW wheat totaled 5.98 mil acres for the new crop while White Winter Wheat acreage is pegged at 3.56 mil acres. Wheat disappearance from September to November was 393 million bushels, down 16% from the same period last year. All-wheat stored on December 1 totaled 1.87 billion bushels, down 10% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 393 million bushels, down 31% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 1.48 billion bushels, down 2% from a year earlier.

CATTLE:Cattle futures remain flat/firm with Feb unchanged at 117.075, $2 below this week’s lower cash trade. Apr cattle are up .200 to 119.075 and Mar feeders are up .975 to 142.350 while leading gains in the cattle complex gains.

HOGS:Hog futures are firm while consolidating in the lower half of Thursday’s ranges. Feb hogs are up .375 to 71.350, April up .475 to 74.300, and May up .350 to 79.050. Steady cash bids today are seen as supportive after steadily rising from the end of December. In addition, the market doesn’t seem too rattled over this week’s news of Canada’s complaint to the World Trade Organization over tariffs ahead of the Trump administration’s scheduled talks over NAFTA.

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