Top Farmer Opening Calls 01-12-18

CORN: Corn futures are up 1/2 cent and will likely remain flat until USDA releases the January crop reports at 11:00 AM CT. Mar corn is just below the 3.50 price area and moving average resistance. Managed money is net short an estimated 213,000 corn contracts heading into the report, banking on non-supportive numbers. Production estimates are expected to eclipse the 14.578 bil bu figure in November with an average estimate of 14.579 bil, and Quarterly Ending stocks are seen coming in near 12.431 bil bu vs 12.386 bil, but that estimate is down from the December report of 2.437 bil bu. History suggests the report will lead to volatility that has eluded this market much of the last 5 months. We did get a 320,000 ton (12.6 mil bu) corn sale this morning to an unknown destination for the 2017-18 marketing year. Crude is down 29 cents and the dollar is down 37 points.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures are fractionally lower with Mar beans down 3/4 cent to 9.49-1/4. That contract will represent the lead month when January futures expire later today. The South American weather forecast had no major changes as a front will bring rains to most of Argentina in the next 2-3 days then quieting down in most of Argentina for the rest of the next 10 days. Good rains are seen for all of Brazil over the next 5 days and continue through the 6 to 10 day period. Pre-report estimates for today’s USDA report indicate upgrades to U.S. soybean production to 4.427 bil bu vs 4.425, and quarterly ending stocks to 3.181 bil bu from 2.898 bil.

WHEAT:Wheat futures are unchanged with May CBOT and KC wheat at 4.46-3/4 and 4.53-3/4, respectively. Pre-report estimates show there would be a slightly friendly slant with quarterly grain stocks averaging 1.849 bil bu compared to 2.253 bil.

CATTLE:Cattle futures are narrowly mixed with Feb up .100 to 117.175 after closing slightly higher in Thursday’s two-sided session. Apr cattle are down .175 to 118.700. March feeders are down .275 to 141.100.

HOGS:Hog futures are firm with Feb hogs up .250 to 71.225 in light trade, so far. April hogs are steady at 73.825. We’ll look for hog futures to trade an ‘inside day’ after setting back from contract highs mid-week. Cash market bids look generally steady today.

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